預測房價崩盤的方法 - MANKIW and WEIL 在1989年成功預測了2007年的房價崩盤

預測房價崩盤的方法

N. Gregory MANKIW and David N. WEIL 在1989年成功預測了2007年的房價崩盤

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/40_Baby_Boom.pdf

Mankiw, N. G. and Weil, D. N. (1989),
“The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust and the Housing Market,”
Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 19, 235-258.


This paper examines the impact of major demographic changes on the housing market in the
United States. The entry of the Baby Boom generation into its house-buying years is found to
be the major cause of the increase in real housing prices in the 1970s. Since the Baby Bust
generation is now entering its house-buying years, housing demand will grow more slowly in the
1990s than in any time in the past forty years. If the historical relation between housing demand
and housing prices continues into the future, real housing prices will fall substantially over the
next two decades.


The implication for future housing prices is perhaps apparent from fig. 7,
which graphs the percentage increase in housing prices and the percentage
increase in housing demand. It shows that housing demand will grow more
slowly over the next twenty years than at any time in our sample. If the
historical relation between demand and prices continues to hold, it appears
that the real price of housing will fall about 3 percent a year. More formal
forecasting using the regressions yields the same answer. The regression in
the first column of table 2 implies that real housing prices will fall by a total
of 47 percent by the year 2007. Thus, according to this forecasting equation,
the housing boom of the past twenty years will more than reverse itself in the
next twenty.