2011年9月27日 星期二

哪裡轉錯彎了? 哪裡出錯了?


每個原本混的比我差的人,現在都混的比我好
每個當初和我一起混的人,現在都混的比我好
我一直反省,在人生的路上,我是哪裡轉錯彎了?
哪裡出錯了?

起手便錯走了路頭,後來越做越壞,總沒有個好結果。

我怎麼想,都覺得這是個   Initial value problem

對著雪月交輝的景致,想起謝靈運的詩,「明月照積雪,北風勁且哀」兩句。若非經歷北方苦寒景象,那裡知道「北風勁且哀」的個「哀」字下的好呢?這時月光照的滿地的亮,抬起頭來,天上的星一個也看不見,只有北邊,北斗七星開陽搖光,像幾個淡白點子一樣,還看得清楚。那北斗正斜倚在紫微垣的西邊上面,杓在上,魁在下。心裡想道:「歲月如流,眼見斗杓又將東指了,人又要添一歲了。一年一年的這樣瞎混下去,如何是個了局呢?」又想到《詩經》上說的「維北有斗,不可以挹酒漿。」──想到此地,不覺滴下淚來。

2011年9月22日 星期四

為什麼真正交易賺錢的人,不是大家以為能靠交易賺錢的人

The problem in relying on evidence of superior management skills is that winning strategies tend to have a brief half-life. Capital markets as active and liquid as ours are so intensely competitive that results from testing ideas on past data are difficult to replicate or sustain in real time.Many smart people fail to get rich because people not so smart soon follow in their footsteps and smother the advantage their strategy was designed to create.


Because of the danger that free-riders will hop aboard a successful strategy, it is quite possible that there are investors out there who beat the market consistently beyond the probability of luck, but who stubbornly guard their obscurity. Nobel Laureate Paul Samuelson, an eloquent defender of the hypothesis that markets act as though they were rational, has admitted that possibility: ‘People differ in their heights, pulchritude, and acidity, why not in their P.Q., or performance quotient?’ But he goes on to point out that the few people who have high P.Q.s are unlikely to rent their talents ‘to the Ford Foundation or the local bank trust department. They have too high an I.Q. for that.’ You will not find them on Wall Street Week, on the cover of Time, or contributing papers to scholarly journals on portfolio theory.


Instead, they are managing private partnerships that limit the number of investors they accept and that mandate seven-figure minimum participations. Since they participate in the capital appreciation as well as receiving a fee, adding other people's money to their own gives them an opportunity to leverage their P.Q.s. It may well be that some of them would qualify as Snap champs.


Their strategies draw on theoretical and empirical concepts that reach back to the origins of probability and to the Chevalier de Mere himself. But those strategies incorporate a more complex view of market rationality than I have set forth. If there is validity to the notion that risk equals opportunity, this little tribe is showing the way.


~Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein

2011年9月21日 星期三

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